{"id":13787,"date":"2023-01-15T16:23:36","date_gmt":"2023-01-15T12:23:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mecra.az\/?p=13787"},"modified":"2023-01-15T16:23:36","modified_gmt":"2023-01-15T12:23:36","slug":"2023-cu-ill%c9%99-bagli-b%c9%99dbin-proqnoz-tarixin-%c9%99n-isti-ili-ola-bil%c9%99r","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mecra.az\/?p=13787","title":{"rendered":"2023-c\u00fc ill\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 B\u018fDB\u0130N PROQNOZ: Tarixin \u0259n isti ili ola bil\u0259r"},"content":{"rendered":"

Okeandan g\u0259l\u0259n siqnal: Q\u0259fil t\u0259bi\u0259t hadis\u0259si klimatoloqlar\u0131 t\u0259\u015fvi\u015f\u0259 sal\u0131b<\/p>\n

Lent.az<\/a>\u00a0xarici mediaya istinadla bildirir ki, iqlim\u015f\u00fcnaslar\u0131n yeni ilin tarixin \u0259n isti ill\u0259rind\u0259n biri olaca\u011f\u0131na ciddi \u015f\u00fcbh\u0259l\u0259ri var.<\/p>\n

2023-c\u00fc ild\u0259 planetin orta hava istiliyi s\u0259nayed\u0259n \u0259vv\u0259lki s\u0259viyy\u0259d\u0259n t\u0259xmin\u0259n 1,2 d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259 y\u00fcks\u0259k olacaq v\u0259 bu, ilin tarixin \u0259n isti ill\u0259rind\u0259n biri olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6st\u0259rir.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

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Bu proqnozu B\u00f6y\u00fck Britaniyan\u0131n Hava b\u00fcrosu payla\u015f\u0131b. \u0130qlim\u015f\u00fcnaslar\u0131n fikrinc\u0259, bu, bel\u0259 rekordlar\u0131n (daha do\u011frusu, antirekordlar\u0131n) ard\u0131c\u0131l onuncu ili olacaq. Birinci yer h\u0259l\u0259 2016-c\u0131 il\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259rdir: o zaman Yerd\u0259 havan\u0131n h\u0259rar\u0259ti 1880-ci ild\u0259n \u0259vv\u0259lkind\u0259n 1,28 d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259 isti olub.<\/p>\n

Lakin ke\u00e7\u0259n il h\u0259m d\u0259 hava anomaliyalar\u0131 il\u0259 yadda qaland\u0131r. M\u0259s\u0259l\u0259n, B\u00f6y\u00fck Britaniyada tarixd\u0259 \u0259n isti yay olub. B\u0259zi yerl\u0259rd\u0259 +40 Selsi v\u0259 daha \u00e7ox. \u00d6lk\u0259nin b\u0259zi regionlar\u0131na hava t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259si il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u0259mi\u015f q\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 x\u0259b\u0259rdarl\u0131q edilib. \u0130qlim\u015f\u00fcnaslar\u0131 maraqland\u0131r\u0131r ki, \u0259slind\u0259 2022-ci il h\u0259l\u0259 d\u0259 La-Nina t\u0259bi\u0259t hadis\u0259sinin h\u00f6kmranl\u0131\u011f\u0131 alt\u0131nda idi v\u0259 bu, \u0259slind\u0259 havan\u0131 s\u0259rinl\u0259\u015fdirir.<\/p>\n

El-Ni\u00f1o v\u0259 La-Ni\u00f1a n\u0259dir?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Bu, Sakit Okeanda su v\u0259 hava k\u00fctl\u0259l\u0259rinin ekvatorda h\u0259r\u0259k\u0259tidir. Buna n\u0259yin s\u0259b\u0259b oldu\u011fu h\u0259l\u0259 d\u0259 tam ayd\u0131n deyil. Geoloqlar\u0131n fikrinc\u0259, bu, \u015e\u0259rqi Sakit okean y\u00fcks\u0259li\u015fi b\u00f6lg\u0259sind\u0259 yerin d\u0259rinlikl\u0259rind\u0259 ba\u015f ver\u0259n prosesl\u0259r\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259dir.<\/p>\n

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Tektonik plit\u0259l\u0259rin s\u0259rh\u0259di var v\u0259 p\u00fcsk\u00fcr\u0259n qazlar okean\u0131n dibind\u0259n qalx\u0131r. \u00d6zl\u0259ri \u0259traf m\u00fchiti q\u0131zd\u0131r\u0131r, \u00fcst\u0259lik, onlar\u0131n \u00fcz\u0259rind\u0259ki ozon t\u0259b\u0259q\u0259sini m\u0259hv edirl\u0259r ki, bu da v\u0259ziyy\u0259ti daha da g\u0259rginl\u0259\u015fdirir. Ancaq tsiklik g\u00fcn\u0259\u015f aktivliyinin d\u0259 bir \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 t\u0259sir etdiyi bir versiya var.<\/p>\n

H\u0259r halda, vaxta\u015f\u0131r\u0131, y\u0259ni bir ne\u00e7\u0259 ild\u0259n bir Sakit okean ekvatorunda su v\u0259 hava ya n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259\u00e7arpacaq d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259d\u0259 istil\u0259\u015fir, ya da \u0259ksin\u0259, soyuyur. Normalda Perunun sahill\u0259ri h\u0259mi\u015f\u0259 Avstraliya v\u0259 \u0130ndoneziya \u0259traf\u0131nda oldu\u011fundan bir ne\u00e7\u0259 d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259 s\u0259rin olur, \u00e7\u00fcnki k\u00fcl\u0259k C\u0259nubi Amerikadan isti suyu sola sovurur v\u0259 oradan daha soyuq su dibd\u0259n qalx\u0131r. Bu da yax\u015f\u0131d\u0131r, \u00e7\u00fcnki t\u0259rkibind\u0259 daha \u00e7ox plankton var, bal\u0131qlar bunu xo\u015flay\u0131r. V\u0259 m\u00fcvafiq olaraq, bal\u0131q\u00e7\u0131lar da. Ancaq el\u0259 olur ki, k\u00fcl\u0259k \u0259ks istiqam\u0259td\u0259 \u0259sir: soldan sa\u011fa.<\/p>\n

\"\"O, g\u00fccl\u00fc ya\u011f\u0131\u015f buludlar\u0131n\u0131 Peruya, daha sonra \u00c7iliy\u0259 v\u0259 AB\u015e-a apar\u0131r. Orada isti v\u0259 r\u00fctub\u0259tli olur, ya\u011f\u0131\u015f ya\u011f\u0131r, sel g\u0259lir.<\/p>\n

Perulular bu fenomen\u0259 El-Nino ad\u0131n\u0131 veribl\u0259r, \u00e7\u00fcnki Milad g\u00fcnl\u0259rind\u0259 daha \u00e7ox n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 \u00e7arp\u0131r. El-Ni\u00f1o, M\u0259sih U\u015fa\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ispan dilind\u0259 dan\u0131\u015fan ad\u0131d\u0131r (h\u0259rfi m\u0259nada \u201co\u011flan\u201d).<\/p>\n

V\u0259 \u0259ksin\u0259 v\u0259ziyy\u0259t ba\u015f verir v\u0259 ona La-Nina (h\u0259rfi m\u0259nada \u2013 \u201cq\u0131z\u201d) ad\u0131 verilib: \u00e7ox g\u00fccl\u00fc k\u00fcl\u0259k sa\u011fdan sola do\u011fru gedir, su v\u0259 hava t\u0259kc\u0259 Amerika qit\u0259l\u0259rind\u0259 deyil, h\u0259m d\u0259 ekvatorun b\u00f6y\u00fck hiss\u0259sind\u0259 \u00a0soyuyur.<\/p>\n

Sonra Avstraliyada x\u00fcsusil\u0259 ya\u011f\u0131\u015fl\u0131 vaxtlar g\u0259lir, lakin Amerikas\u0131nda quraql\u0131q ba\u015flay\u0131r. Aliml\u0259rin fikrinc\u0259, \u201co\u011flan\u201d v\u0259 \u201cq\u0131z\u201d t\u0259kc\u0259 Sakit okean\u0131n yudu\u011fu sahill\u0259rd\u0259 i\u015fl\u0259mir, h\u0259m d\u0259 bu v\u0259 ya dig\u0259r \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 d\u00fcnyan\u0131n hava \u015f\u0259raitin\u0259 t\u0259sir g\u00f6st\u0259rir.<\/p>\n

\u00dcmumiyy\u0259tl\u0259, qlobal miqyasda La-Ni\u00f1a soyutma, El-Ni\u00f1o is\u0259 istil\u0259\u015fm\u0259 g\u0259tirir. Planetin m\u00fcxt\u0259lif yerl\u0259rin\u0259 h\u0259r iki hadis\u0259 f\u0259rqli \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 t\u0259sir edir, \u00e7\u00fcnki D\u00fcnya okean\u0131 v\u0259 onun \u00fcz\u0259rind\u0259ki atmosfer son d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259 m\u00fcr\u0259kk\u0259b mexanizmdir v\u0259 ham\u0131n\u0131n hava proqnozlar\u0131ndan bildiyi kimi, proqnozla\u015fd\u0131rmaq \u00e7\u0259tindir.<\/p>\n

V\u0259ziyy\u0259t el\u0259dir ki, 2020-ci ild\u0259n La-Nina r\u0259hb\u0259rlik edir. \u0130ndi bu, bel\u0259 bir hadis\u0259nin \u00fc\u00e7 q\u0131\u015f ard\u0131c\u0131l olaraq davam etdiyi nadir hallardan biridir (iqlim\u015f\u00fcnaslar\u0131n dediyi kimi, \u201c\u00fc\u00e7qat La-Nina\u201d).<\/p>\n

B\u00fct\u00fcn g\u00f6st\u0259ricil\u0259r\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259, o, art\u0131q 2023-c\u00fc ild\u0259 olmayacaq. Aliml\u0259rin fikrinc\u0259, bu, b\u00fct\u00f6vl\u00fckd\u0259 d\u00fcnya \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn yax\u015f\u0131 x\u0259b\u0259r deyil, \u00e7\u00fcnki \u00fcmumi soyutma effekti olmayacaq.<\/p>\n

Yegan\u0259 t\u0259s\u0259lli odur ki, bu \u201co\u011flan\u201d v\u0259 \u201cq\u0131z\u201d bir-birini d\u0259rhal \u0259v\u0259z etmir, bir n\u00f6v neytral bo\u015fluq yaran\u0131r. Bu o dem\u0259kdir ki, El-Nino h\u0259l\u0259 oyanma\u011fa vaxt tapmayacaq v\u0259 Sakit okean ekvatoru \u201ck\u00f6rp\u0259nin\u201d t\u0259siri alt\u0131nda oldu\u011fu q\u0259d\u0259r isinm\u0259y\u0259c\u0259k. Yeri g\u0259lmi\u015fk\u0259n, \u0259n isti il olan 2016-c\u0131 il sad\u0259c\u0259 El-Nino ili olub.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Okeandan g\u0259l\u0259n siqnal: Q\u0259fil t\u0259bi\u0259t hadis\u0259si klimatoloqlar\u0131 t\u0259\u015fvi\u015f\u0259 sal\u0131b Lent.az\u00a0xarici mediaya istinadla bildirir ki, iqlim\u015f\u00fcnaslar\u0131n yeni ilin tarixin \u0259n isti ill\u0259rind\u0259n biri olaca\u011f\u0131na ciddi \u015f\u00fcbh\u0259l\u0259ri var. 2023-c\u00fc ild\u0259 planetin orta… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":13789,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[50],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13787","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-gundm"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mecra.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13787","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mecra.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mecra.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mecra.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mecra.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=13787"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/mecra.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13787\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13790,"href":"https:\/\/mecra.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13787\/revisions\/13790"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mecra.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/13789"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mecra.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=13787"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mecra.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=13787"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mecra.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=13787"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}